How to go 16-0

A perfect run is the one-game Play-In and then four 4-0 sweeps. Every game is its own weighted coin flip, so even a strong team usually drops one; the only levers are a higher team OVR and better type matchups.

The OVR you need

Opponents are built to a target OVR that rises each round (74, 78, 80, 82, 84, with a little random spread). At 88 you win 77% of Finals games, which makes a 4-0 Finals sweep 37%; across four rounds, 16-0 comes to 12%. At 90 it is 30%; at 85, 1.0%.

Poké Hoops Play-In screen: Sinnoh Knights OVR 81.4 against Unova Cyclones OVR 74.5, matchups by position, a 96-121 loss — That 81.4 team against a 74.5 Play-In opponent, with a type edge at PF: a 93% favourite by the formula. It lost 96–121, and the run was over.

Team OVR	Win the Play-In	Sweep the Finals	Win the title	Go 16-0
80	86%	0.4%	0.5%	<0.1%
82	92%	2.1%	7.6%	<0.1%
84	95%	7.5%	34%	0.3%
85	97%	13%	53%	1.0%
86	97%	19%	70%	2.8%
87	98%	28%	83%	6.4%
88	99%	37%	91%	12%
89	99%	47%	95%	21%
90	99%	56%	98%	30%
92	99%+	72%	99%	52%
95	99%+	88%	99%+	77%

Drafting for it

Fill the scarce positions first. Only 7 non-Legendaries rate 85+ at PG, 9 at SG and 6 at SF, against 31 at PF and 31 at C. A great small forward in round 1 is worth more than an equally rated center.
Count chemistry as rating. +3.5 for a 1'4" point guard equals +3.5 on every player. A Captain Legendary is +2. See the chemistry rules.
Reroll while positions are open. In round 1 almost any strong Pokémon fits somewhere. In round 5 a reroll helps only if the new six include someone good at your one open spot.
Mind the matchups. Each of your players faces the opponent at the same position, and a full type edge there is worth up to 1.6 OVR in that game. Fortress Legendaries cancel your disadvantages.

How we tested the solver

We played 200 full drafts with identical spins two ways. Taking the highest-rated Pokémon at an open position every round and never rerolling averaged 81.9 OVR, won the title 11% of the time and went 16-0 0.6%. Following the solver, rerolls included, averaged 84.7 OVR, won the title 46% and went 16-0 7.9%.

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